Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest


Bad News cyclone 1

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
500 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

…TROPICAL STORM ALEX MOVING NORTHEASTWARD…
…EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON…

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…29.1N 76.3W
ABOUT 270 MI…435 KM ENE OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
ABOUT 715 MI…1155 KM WSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has upgraded the Tropical
Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Bermuda.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest
Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

Potential tropical cyclone 1 becomes tropical storm Alex.

Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 76.3 West. Alex is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue with further acceleration to the northeast.


over the next 12-24 hours. A gradual turn to the east-northeast and
east is expected between Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda
on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible today followed by weakening
beginning on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center, mainly in the southeastern quadrant.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

Happening now pour of 5 basement of the St. Maarten General Hospital

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to
bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through
Monday

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of
Bermuda beginning on Monday.


Bad News cyclone 1

NEXT ADVISORY

Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

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Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Bad News cyclone 1

000 ABNT20 KNHC 051125 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 2022 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Alex, located over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky Bad News cyclone 1

Bad News cyclone 1

…HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ALEX IS STRONGER… As of 8:45 AM EDT Sun Jun 5 the center of Alex was located near 30.0, -74.7 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022000 WTNT31 KNHC 051157 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 …ALEX MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD… …EXPECTED TO MAKE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON… SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————

– LOCATION…29.8N 75.0W ABOUT 635 MI…1020 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH…35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…995 MB…29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None.

Bad News cyclone 1 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.


Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Bad News cyclone 1

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 75.0 West.

Alex is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). Further acceleration to the northeast is expected over the next 12-24 hours. A gradual turn to the east-northeast and east is expected between Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today followed by weakening beginning on Monday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Alex. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center, mainly to the southeast of the center of Alex.

Bad News cyclone 1

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Tropical Storm Alex can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL:

Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Alex is expected to bring 2 to 3 inches or 50 to 75 mm of rain across Bermuda through Monday WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected on the island of Bermuda beginning on Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ————- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 000 WTNT21 KNHC 050853 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012022 0900 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR… * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.3W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT…….150NE 180SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Bad News cyclone 1

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 76.3W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 30.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT… 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT…150NE 190SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT… 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT…130NE 170SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.2N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT…GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT…110NE 120SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT…100NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 34.3N 56.4W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT…GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT… 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 34.2N 52.6W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.7N 49.0W…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z…DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 76.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1…AT 05/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL012022 500 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022 After the previous advisory, data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters and GOES-16 Proxy-Vis satellite imagery indicated that a well-defined center had formed in association with what is now Tropical Storm Alex.


Potential tropical cyclone 1 becomes tropical storm Alex

With that said, the satellite structure of the storm is hardly classical, with the coldest convective cloud tops all shunted east of the low-level center which is still occasionally reforming northeastward where the strongest convection is located. Earlier, the reconnaissance aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds up to 72 kt in the southeast quadrant of the circulation.

Bad News cyclone 1

A nearby released dropsonde, however, suggested that these flight-level winds were not mixing down to the surface at the standard reduction factor, and the highest SFMR winds were only between 35-40 kt. Thus, the initial intensity was set to only 45 kt at 0600 UTC and that remains the intensity this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft will sample the storm later today. Alex’s general motion continues off to the northeast at 065/19 kt. This motion, with some further acceleration, is expected during the next day or two as the system remains well embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow off the eastern US coastline.

Bad News cyclone 1

The current track continues to indicate that Alex will make its closest approach to Bermuda Monday afternoon or evening while the cyclone’s track gradually bends eastward. Thereafter, both the GFS and ECMWF suggest Alex’s surface circulation will decouple from the dwindling convection and slow down as it becomes a shallow and stretched-out vortex. The new NHC track maintains the slowdown trend made from the previous advisory after 48 hours following this general shift in the consensus track aids.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Some additional short-term strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours as long as Alex remains closely tied to the deep convection. This convection is being aided by strong upper-level difluent flow over the anomalously warm Gulf Stream. However, nearby dry air combined with more than 30 kt of vertical wind shear is forecast to disrupt this convective structure, and the global model guidance suggests the convection could separate from the low-level circulation after 24 hours.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

Thus, weakening is anticipated to start on Monday. Continuing the trend from the previous forecast cycle, the latest round of guidance suggests that Alex will complete extratropical transition sooner as its circulation loses fidelity in an increasingly baroclinic environment. The latest NHC forecast now indicates the cyclone becoming post-tropical by 48 hours with complete dissipation by 120 hours.

However, the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest Alex’s remnant circulation could open up into a trough even sooner than the current forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday, and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island on Monday.

Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 29.1N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 30.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 33.2N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 34.0N 60.5W 40 KT 45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z 34.3N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 34.2N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 34.7N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z…DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUN 05 2022 000



Bad News cyclone 1 now tropical storm Alex latest
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