Hurricane hunters find the system is producing tropical storm force winds!
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
400 AM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022
…AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS
PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS…
…NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLORIDA, CUBA, AND THE
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM N OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI…675 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida south of
the Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood, the east coast of Florida
south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to Card Sound Bridge, and
for Lake Okeechobee has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for
the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque
to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
for the northwestern Bahamas to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
- Florida Bay
- West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
- East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
- Lake Okeechobee
- Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
- Northwestern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.3 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and
continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system is
forecast to move across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through
tonight, across the southern and central portions of the Florida
Peninsula on Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic
north of the northwestern Bahamas Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. The system is expected to develop a
well-defined center and become a tropical storm later today, and
some slight strengthening is possible while it approaches Florida
today and tonight. Additional strengthening is possible after the
system moves east of Florida over the western Atlantic late Saturday
- Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90 percent.
- Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).